Guaranteed Cappers

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (561) and the New York Knicks (562) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 121-117 loss on the road to the Knicks as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (55-34) has won 10 of their last 12 games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers allowed the Knicks to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 games — but it was also the third time in their last four games where they allowed their opponent to make at least 51.1% of their shots from the field. Indiana does not have a defensive answer to Jalen Brunson who scored 43 points and got to the free-throw line 14 times on Monday. The Pacers have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, Indiana has played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. This is just the fifth time all season that they are playing in a game with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have played 3 of those previous 4 games Over the Total. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Knicks have played 19 of their 27 games this season Over the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 25 of their last 41 games Over the Total following a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Knicks will be without Mitchell Robinson indefinitely after he suffered a stress fracture in his left ankle on Monday — and that means more playing time for Precious Achiwa. Achiwa means higher scores at the margins since he is not as good a defensive player as Robinson — but he does offer more on the perimeter. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have played 56 of their last 92 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Indiana-New York TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 5/8:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday afternoon was with Under the Total in the match between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. These two teams settled for a 2-2 draw in Munich last Tuesday — but bettors should not conclude that match was a wide open game with plenty of scoring opportunities. The Bavarians got a goal from a Harry Kane penalty kick — and Los Blancos scored the matches’ final goal from a penalty kick from Vinicius Junior in the 83rd minute. Real Madrid registered only nine shots with just three on target. Bayern Munich had 13 shots but only four on target. Take away the penalty kicks — the Bavarians generated only 0.8 non-penalty kick expected goals (non-PKxG) and Los Blancos had just 1.1 non-PKxG. With both of these sides preferring to play in transition from mid-block defensive approaches, this should be a cagey second leg similar to Real Madrid’s 1-1 draw at home against RB Leipzig in the second leg of that Round of 16 contest earlier this year. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 15 of 24 (63%) UEFA Champions League run — and now Frank furthers his 13 of 20 (65%) UCL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year for the Bayern Munich-Real Madrid goal-line winner on CBS-TV at 3 PM ET today! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank DELIVERED his 25* College Football Game of the Year on Michigan in the National Championship Game in January to make it FOUR STRAIGHT #1 College Football Game of the Year winners in the last four seasons! Frank then CA$HED his NFL Game of the Year on Kansas City in the Super Bowl in February to make it THREE STRAIGHT #1 NFL Game of the Year winners in the last three seasons! Frank then kept it going in April by WINNING his College Basketball Game of the Year winner on Purdue in the Final Four to make it FOUR STRAIGHT #1 College Basketball Game of the Year winners in the last four years! Frank continues his BIG GAME SUCCESS in the UEFA Champions League this afternoon with his 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year! BANK on Frank!

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid has won eight of their last ten matches after a 3-0 victory at home against Cadiz in La Liga action on May 4th. Bayern Munich is winless in their last two matches after a 3-1 loss at Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday. These two settled for a 2-2 draw in Munich in their first-leg match last Tuesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich blew the opportunity to take a one-goal lead into this second match by fouling Vinicius Junior inside the box which gave him the chance to score his second goal of the match with a penalty kick at the 83rd minute. The Bavarians have been more effective at home where they have lost only twice in the Bundesliga — but they have five losses on the road in domestic play. In the Champions League, Bayern Munich lost at Lazio by a 1-0 score in the Round of 16 — and they lost at Manchester City by a 3-0 score in the Group Stage. They have won only twice in their last nine matches on the road across all competitions with losses during that span — and they do not have a clean sheet on the road in 2024. They have surrendered two or more goals in eight of their last ten matches on the road. Domestically, it has been a disappointing season with Bayer Leverkusen already taking the title — the Bavarians are 15 points behind in second place. Manage Thomas Tuchel announced in February that he will not return to the club. Bayern Munich has demonstrated that is foolish to discount proud teams with talent in European competition — they outclassed Arsenal in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. But something is lacking. This club is not as elite in the buildup as past teams. They struggle in transition defense. Injuries have decimated their backline. They are without Raphael Guerreiro and Dayot Upamecano — and Eric Dier along with Mattias de Ligt are questionable with knocks. Kim Min-Jae is a liability at center back and his two mistakes last week led directly to Los Blancos’ two goals. The Bavarians have struggled against top-tier talent. They were outclassed by a 3-0 score in their showdown against Bayer Leverkusen in February. They lost 2-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund (who advanced to the finals of this tournament yesterday). And they lost to a Man City squad that Real Madrid outlasted in the Quarterfinals of this event last month. Los Blancos dealt with injuries in the first half of the season — and they were giving up 1.12 expected goals (xGA) in La Liga going into 2024. But since January 1st, Real Madrid is holding their domestic opponents to just 0.83 xGA. They have clinched another La Liga title. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is a master in adapting his tactics to his opponent — and he has found the identity of this squad which plays at its best in a passive mid-block defensive approach that attacks in transition. Real Madrid is very tough to beat at home at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu where they have won 15 of their 17 domestic matches at home with no losses. Since January 1st, they have won eight of their nine home matches in La Liga while generating 2.74 expected goals (xG) and surrendering just 0.82 xGA. In their last 12 matches at home in the Champions League, they are unbeaten with nine victories. They get David Alaba back for this match after he was suspended for last week’s contest. 

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich has not registered a clean sheet in their last 16 matches against Real Madrid. They are winless in their nine previous contests against teams managed by Ancelotti with nine losses and zero clean sheets. The legendary Ancelotti looks to take his sixth team to the Champions League final — and Los Blancos are striving to win their 15th European title. Real Madrid lost in the final to Man City last year — they will be confident this afternoon that they are destined to return. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.